Early season lesson

Well I have been quickly reminded of something that I seem to forget every year. Off days are terrible.

Oh well we have Lilly going today and need to get things going. I hate to lose the first series of the year, but if we go down today not only does that ensure the series is lost, but we'd be relying on Marquis to prevent the series sweep to a division rival.

The good news is our bullpen was solid yesterday and facing the predominatly left-handed Reds Ohman could get into the game again. If we can just supply them with a lead I'll feel much better about it all. Consider Mrs. Baylock's first lines in The Omen when our bully is given a lead, "Have no fear, little one... I am here to protect thee. "

Opening Day

Well, it was an exciting day to be a Cubs fan. Opening Day with all the changes to our team, but alas, another loss. Well we will have to go 161-1. Zambrano didn't look too great, but pitching always takes a little longer and it is Z so I am not at all worried. Lee looks healthy which is good for us, but Ohman was really on.

One inning no earned runs, no walks and two strikeouts in the bottom of the eighth. Considering how Cotts looked in the spring it is a good thing we didn't move our favourite bullpen southpaw.
Cotts looked OK yesterday for 1.2 innings with 2 hits, no runs and a K.

Another long year ahead for Cubs fans though. A long year of waiting for that damned three-run homerun like we were playing in the AL methinks. I can't stand the absence of small ball on my team. Murton at the top of the order will help our OBP in early innings, but yesterday even he looked impatient at the plate. As I said though it is a long year. I don't gauge much from Opening Day.

The last two years we romped on Opening Day and look how that worked out for us. Here is hoping that this year is different. I'll take any kind of different, anything is better than last place.

And then there was one!

One day until the Cub's pitchers and catchers report for duty.

I am excited for the Cubs, but I am still not predicting a World Series berth just yet. Personally, I think we are about two position players and a pitcher away from that. I could be wrong if (IF) Mark Prior actually pitches 180 + innings this year. If Lilly benefits from switching to the NL, like I think he will. If Rich Hill is the September Rich Hill and not the June Rich Hill. If Dempster throws like a closer, or someone else does. If Carlos Zambrano is Carlos Zambrano then maybe the pitching thing is there already. However, did you count the number of ifs there?
In terms of the team we are fielding there are way too many question marks. At SS we have Cesar (A-Gonz II) Iztiris. The other middle infield spot has DeRosa at 2B, but I am not counting on him repeating his contract year of 2006. However he is versatile. I would like to see Theriot get 300 ABs with DeRosa filling in around the infield and outfield as needed. I hope Pinella sticks to his plan for LF. How do you platoon with a rightie who hits right-handed pitching better than the left-handed batter? In RF I hope that Jones stays and puts up numbers similar to last year's. He may improve if we let Floyd hit lefties in right sometimes because Jones is one of the only players on the team who hits lefites worse than the "Hometown Hero"
Overall, I like the Soriano signing. I think he will fit in well in CF, but I don’t want him batting leadoff. Maybe I am just old fashion, but I like when my leadoff hitters get on base.

In terms of managing, I was disappointed that Rothschild is still wearing Cubs blue. Pinella will be fun, I hope the team plays fundamentally sound, but for the long-term I would have preferred Girardi. That said the Cubs are playing for the short term and if any manager could take the Cubs to the playoffs (other than the inexplicably unemployed Cito Gaston) it is Pinella.

I love how Jennie Craig has attacked our pen. Dempster dropped 35 pounds and Wood has dropped 30. This may help Wood stay healthy and while some people see Wood as a closer, I wouldn't fall of my chair due to shock if he works his way back into the rotation if there are injuries and pitching out of the pen is wearing on his shoulder.

I hope Pie stays in AAA and avoids being the next CPatt. Did I mention that I hope that Theriot gets at least 300 ABs. Finally, I really hope A-Ram doesn’t get the “just signed a big contract sleeps”. He seems like he has a bit more competitive drive than Adrian Beltre, but you never know.

Finally, I hope Ohman stays with the club and continues devastating left-handers across the league. I think he needs a monster spring training to do it and I guess we may know more tomorrow. (Spring Training FINALLY!!!)

All in all. I don't think this team will prevent the drought from reaching the 100 year plateau, but I wouldn't sell them short . . . well not at least until Spring Training starts. Did I mention that is tomorrow?

NLCS . . . Cubs vs. Cards

NLCS: Game 1: Cubs 6, St. Louis 0
The Cubs pound the defending World Series Champions in the first game. Zambrano goes the full nine innings allowing three hits and one walk. Mark Mulder, who bounced back strong in 2007, was bumped from the game in the third inning after allowing five earned runs and no outs. Every Cub recorded a hit and Barrett had a round tripper in the 3rd inning.

NLCS: Game 2: Cubs 3, St. Louis 1
Mark Prior threw another gem with seven and two-thirds of an inning allowing only one run. Pujols continued to struggle at home and has only two hits in the playoffs at the new Busch Stadium. Lee went two for three with a walk and two runs.

NLCS: Game 3: St. Louis 11, Cubs 5
Pujols continues to thrive on the road during these playoffs. He hit one home run as part of his three hits and leads the Cardinals to a big road win. Zambrano got pegged with four earned runs and a loss. Ohman threw and inning and one-third of scoreless ball.

NLCS: Game 4: St. Louis 4, Cubs 3
The Cards even up the series. They had two runs in six innings of work for Ted Lilly. Both coming off a seventh inning Pujols homer. Larry Bigbie hit the game winning single in the eighth off of Howry.

NLCS: Game 4: St. Louis 0, Cubs 10
Mulder got rocked again for the second time this series. Marshall struck out seven in six innings and Ohman threw a scoreless eighth. DeRosa, Lee and Ramirez all had three hits on the day.

NLCS: Game 6: Cubs 1, St. Louis 2
The Cards knot up the NLCS after a decisive 2-1 win at home. Prior got tagged with the loss allowing two runs in six innings. While Barrett drove in four runs with a three run homer, a sac fly and a walk.

NLCS: Game 7: Cubs 7, St. Louis 3
In an exciting Game 7 the Cubs beatout the Cardnials. The Cubs took a 3-0 lead in the first and carried it until the sixth. With Zambrano out of the game the Cards Scott Rolen hit a three run homer off of Kerry Wood. A combination of Wuretz, Ohman and Dempster go them out of the jam and Eyre and Howry each took a scoreless inning in the 8th and 9th. Lee had the three run homer in the 1st and Soriano’s two-out, two-on double gave the Cubs a four run cushion in the 8th.

NLDS Crystal Ball . . .

Once again I did not toggle anything, but simply let the Baseball Mogul simulation run its course and monitored its findings. Here is the first round of the playoffs.

2007 Playoffs
NLDS: Game 1: Cubs 3, Diamondback 0
Zambrano throws an eighth inning shutout allowing three hits and three walks with six strikeouts. Randy Johnson allowed one run, a solo homer as one of Jones three hits on the day, in six innings.

NLDS: Game 2: Cubs 4, Diamondback 1
Prior threw eight innings and allowed only one run. Derrek Lee took three walks and also knocked in DeRosa with a sacrifice fly for the game winning run in second inning. Ramirez added insurance in the sixth.

NLDS: Game 3: Diamondback 3, Cubs 5
Sean Marshall had five strong innings allowing only three unearned runs. Soriano hit two homers and four of the Cubs five runs came from his bat. The Cubs sweep the D-Back and move on to the NLCS. The Cardinals drop one game to New York before moving on to face the Cubs.

Next Up . . . St. Louis!

September Crystal Ball . . .

September
Cubs Record: 71-61
Games out of NL Central: 9 (St. Louis)
Games out of Wildcard: W (2 games up on the Phillies)

Games of Note:

September 16, 2007 – After pitching 2 scoreless innings in a huge Cub win to sweep the Astros Ohman spends 15 days on the DL with a sprained neck.

Ohman’s Season Stats:
ERA 3.99
IP 98.1
K 82
BB 59
W-L-S 8-7-2

Other Stats of Note:

Batting:
Soriano .306, 33 Doubles, 48 HR, 33 SB, 114 RBI
DeRosa . 301, 18 Doubles, 6 HR, 3 SB, 33 RBI
Lee .276 , 20 Doubles, 28 HR, 8 SB, 98 RBI
Ramierz .281, 12 Doubles, 21 HR, 0 SB, 87 RBI
Jones . 277, 24 Doubles, 21 HR, 7 SB, 79 RBI
Murton .288, 21 Doubles, 12 HR, 10 SB, 65 RBI

Pitching
Zambrano IP 202, ERA 2.39, W 17, L 6, K 212, BB 88
Prior IP 212(?), ERA 3.3, W 14, L 10, K 251, BB 83
Lilly IP 188, ERA 3.91, W 11, L 8, K 97, BB 71
Marshall IP 180, ERA, 2.76, W 12, L 6, K 111, BB 81
Marquis IP 200.1 ERA 3.64, W 10, L 8, K 127, BB 68
Dempster IP 63.1 ERA, 4.12, W 2, L 4, S 18 BS10
Howry IP 106, ERA 2.03, W 7, L 5, S 25, BS 1
Wood IP 65, ERA, 2.22, W 6, L 4, S 1, K 75, L 36



2007 Final Standings

Cubs Record: 90-72
Games out of NL Central: 7 (St. Louis)
Games out of Wildcard: W (4 games up on the Phillies)

August Forecast . . .

August
Cubs Record: 71-61
Games out of NL Central: 7 (St. Louis)
Games out of Wildcard: 2.5 (New York)

Games of Note:
August 1, 2007 – Ohman throws a scoreless ninth earning his second save of the season in a big 2-1 win over the Marlins.
August 4, 2007 – Ohman is hit with a 3-run eighth and takes his sixth loss of the season.
August 12, 2007 – After blowing two saves in back to back days against the hapless Rockies Dempster loses the closers jobs to Bobby Howry.
August 20, 2007 – In his longest outing of the season Ohman throws three innings of no-hit ball against the Astros. Despite striking out 4 and allowing one walk the Cubs lose 1-0.
August 27, 2007 – A dramatic extra-inning walk-off homerun by Jacque Jones capped Ohman’s eighth win of the season. He pitched a scoreless ninth and tenth allowing only one base-runner as the Cubs upended the National’s 3-2.

Ohman’s stats through August:
ERA 4.00
IP 90
K 77
BB 56
W-L-S 8-6-2

July 2007 Crystal Ball . . .

July
Cubs Record: 58-48
Games out of NL Central: 6.5 (St. Louis)
Games out of Wildcard: 3.5 (Houston)

Games of Note:
July 4, 2007 – Ohman allows 1 run in the seventh as gets tagged with his second loss of the season. The Cubs are in a five game losing streak.
July 13 2007 – Soriano had two hits in the All Star Game, but Pujols knocking a three run homer to give the NL a 5-2 win in the Mid-Summer Classic.
July 19, 2007 – The Cubs come back from the All Star game very hot. Ohman gets his seventh win of the season with a scoreless seventh against the Brewers.
July 23, 2007 – The Cubs slip a bit and Ohman gets tagged for 4 runs in the 7th in the final game of a three game Pirate sweep. Ohman’s outstanding month this far allow him to keep his ERA respectable.
July 30, 2007 – Ohman gets tagged with 1 earned run and the loss in the seventh against the D-Backs again. This brings his ERA back up to 4.00 on the season.

Ohman’s stats through July:
ERA 4.00
IP 69.2
K 59
BB 41
W-L-S 7-5-1